2026 What’s Ahead For Child Care Mergers and Acquisitions

Happy 2026!

Following what is now a multi-year tradition, I review the predictions for the previous year on child care mergers and acquisitions and look ahead at what is to come over the next year.

What I said in 2025 with comments:

What I said: “As President Trump takes office for the second time, there will also be many other changes in political leaders at the federal, state, and local levels. Will these leaders be able to work together to improve the national, state, and local economies, continue to lower inflation and increase productivity, and lead America through a successful 2025? Time will tell.”

Well, there have been many changes in our political leadership at all levels. Most objective observers would have to question whether these leaders found a way to work together to pass legislation, fund initiatives, and make progress on major initiatives that would have a substantial impact on the child care industry.

What I said: “The hope is that inflation will continue declining, allowing for a steady decrease in interest rates. Will we see prices also begin to fall? Probably not. Decreasing pricing is often not a part of decreasing inflation.”

The good news is that, in 2025, inflation, although still “sticky,” did decline. However, prices for food, supplies, and capital improvements common to child care remain high. The cost of gasoline and diesel is down, providing relief to child care programs that provide transportation for after-school programs, summer camps, and field trips.

What I said:  “Many childcare buildings and businesses rely on SBA-backed financing, which can have a variable interest rate instead of a fixed interest rate. These loans are often hundreds of thousands to multiple millions of dollars. Any decrease in loan interest rates means lower monthly loan payments. This means more cash flow to the childcare owner for profits, reinvestment in programs, capital expenditures, and more opportunities to save for future business needs.”

Unfortunately, the small cumulative decreases in interest rates have not had a measurable impact on SBA loan interest rates. Interest rates on SBA variable-rate loans have declined by approximately 1% to 1.5%.

What I said:  “Stats and trends indicate we should see continued economic improvement in 2025—nothing outrageous—just a slow, steady improvement as the year progresses.”

Yes, the economy did improve in 2025 – nothing outrageous – just a slow, steady improvement.

What I said:  “What about the investment groups and private equity in childcare? For the most part, the private equity groups continued to invest heavily in the childcare industry in 2024. Sure, some groups struggled with lower-than-desired enrollment associated with labor shortages and will use 2025 to focus not on growth but on shoring up the financial performance of existing units owned.”

The large national and regional chain operators, as well as smaller multiunit operators across the country, reported “soft enrollment” at some locations. Noted reasons – continued staffing shortages, increased competition from the local school system, YMCA, and new employer-based care programs, and the workforce changes from COVID – flex work schedules, home and office workdays, and more women choosing not to work outside the home.

Soft enrollment means that operators continue to spend more time on marketing and activities to acquire and maintain enrollment. This will persist in 2026, as multiple factors that are causing low enrollment will remain.

All the larger childcare chain operators and their private equity backers will seek the best growth options, whether through acquisitions of existing childcare businesses or greenfield and brownfield options.

This statement is almost always true. The larger groups continued to acquire good, profitable child care businesses. Most conduct extensive “shopping” and acquire only child care businesses that are a good strategic fit. In speaking with the acquisition teams at these companies, they often report reviewing 100 to 150 child care business listings each year. Some purchase only a few, while other groups may purchase a couple of dozen locations or more if some offerings are for multi-location programs.

Let that sink in – large, corporate child care buyers only buy a small percentage of the centers they review each year – often only 10% or so – and in some years, purchase only one or two childcare businesses. Why? The reasons are many, but the simple answer is that they considered the other child care businesses not to be a good strategic fit. Or most child care businesses did not meet their minimum performance requirements for tuition rates, revenues, and profits.

What I said:  My crystal ball says 2025 will be a good year for the childcare industry and child care mergers and acquisitions. Again, not an outrageous year – but good steady growth, increasing financial stability, and an active level of mergers and acquisitions as well as growth through new builds (greenfield) and brownfield (repurposing buildings) for childcare.

Although M&A activity across many industries remained down in 2025, the child care industry continued to see strong M&A activity. With hundreds of large and small private-equity-backed buyers, the environment remained competitive, with multiple remaining high (for good-quality child care businesses and assets).

Thoughts on the child care industry mergers and acquisitions outlook for 2026:

• With an improving economy, even with sticky inflation and limited interest rate reductions, we will continue to see a high level of mergers and acquisitions activity in 2026. Now that does not mean that the buyer will be interested in all child care businesses – nope (reread the information above). The primary interest will continue to be large child care businesses with licensed capacities of 150 or more, located in areas with high median household incomes, with private-pay enrollment at above-average tuition rates, high gross revenues, and profits.
• Selling child care businesses with a substantial level of public-pay enrollment, regardless of profit level, will remain a challenge. High levels of public-pay (subsidized) enrollment are viewed as risky. Professional, disciplined buyers focus on transactions with low risk levels.
• Child care business multiples are high – we are seeing high prices for quality child care businesses and associated real estate in good locations. This will continue in 2026.
• As an owner of a child care business, you can have a big impact on the price you receive for your child care business by maximizing profits, having a well-trained, competent management team, and planning your exit well in advance of going to market. There are always buyers for good child care businesses.

Again, Happy 2026, and I wish you Much Success! Please reach out if I may assist you – all conversations are confidential, and there is no obligation.

Donna Dailey 

336-617-3181